WGSD budget extended forecast a bit stormy

By Dave Fidlin

Correspondent

      With a freshly minted 2013-14 school year budget completed, officials in the Waterford Graded School District have begun looking into the future and making projections for the years ahead.

      Superintendent Chris Joch delivered a budget forecast to members of the board’s Personnel and Finance Committee earlier this month.

      While the district’s budgetary picture for the time being is healthy, Joch expressed several concerns about the future.

      In recent years, a trend of declining enrollment within WGSD has developed, and Joch said he does not believe this pattern will end anytime soon.

      In upcoming years, Joch said classes of between 180 and 200 eighth-graders will exit Fox River Middle School, and the WGSD district, for high school.

      But incoming kindergarten classes will hover at around 150 students.

      “It’s a good guess,” Joch said of the projections, which were based, in part, by reviewing recent birth data.

      Board member Dan Jensen, who serves on the Personnel and Finance Committee, said he did not agree with Joch’s assertion. Jensen said young families have been moving into homes within his subdivision.

      “I’m seeing a lot of young kids running around the neighborhood,” Jensen added. “I think (enrollment) is going to stabilize.”

      But even if enrollment does stabilize, WGSD likely would not see a spike in one of its revenue streams for several years. State aid, the district’s second largest source of income behind taxes, runs on a three-year rolling average, meaning the ultimate figure takes into account both current and recent historical enrollment data.

      Joch’s recent discussion honed in on the district’s fund balance – the portion of the overall budget relegated for reserve dollars.

      Financial analysts typically recommend districts keep between 30 and 33 percent of a district’s overall dollars within the fund balance. WGSD currently has 43 percent of its funds designated in the fund balance.

      Assuming a trio of factors – property values, state funding and enrollment patterns – remain the same, Joch said WGSD’s fund balance would remain healthy based on the premise the district adopts a 2-percent property tax levy increase annually.

      Starting with the 2016-17 school year, however, Joch said the fund balance would fall below optimal levels.

      “At some point, we’re going to have to have a pretty serious, lengthy discussion,” Joch said as he cautioned committee members about potential challenges in the road ahead.

      This year, the WGSD board advocated toward a 2 percent increase, even though it could have levied a higher amount of taxes in accordance with state law.

      Moving forward, Joch said he recommends the board continue to consider levy increases.